Piñera Favoured for Run-Off Win in Chile

Sebastián Piñera heads to next month’s presidential run-off in Chile as the frontrunner, according to a poll by CERC. 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the candidate of the centre-right Coalition for Change (CC) in the election.

Former president Eduardo Frei Ruiz Tagle of the centre-left Agreement of Parties for Democracy (CPD) is second with 32 per cent. 19 per cent of respondents are undecided or would not support either of the two politicians. Continue reading

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Opinion Poll: UK facing hung parliament next year

Britain could be heading for a hung parliament next year because support for the Conservatives may not be enough to secure the party an overall majority, an opinion poll showed on Tuesday.

What economists have dubbed the “nightmare scenario” for financial markets has grown more likely because voters are starting to feel more confident about the Labour government’s handling of the economy, the poll showed. Continue reading

Close National Race Continues in Czech Republic

The political scene in the Czech Republic has become more polarized as the two top parties are now in a technical tie, according to a poll by Median. 29.6 per cent of respondents would vote for the opposition Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD) in the next legislative election, while 28.6 per cent would back the ruling Civic Democratic Party (ODS).

The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) is third with 12.6 per cent, followed by Tradition Responsibility Prosperity 09 (TOP 09) with 12.2 per cent, the Christian and Democratic Union – Czech People’s Party (KDU-CSL) with 5.7 per cent, the Green Party (SZ) with 2.9 per cent, and Public Affairs (VV) with 2.5 per cent. Continue reading

How long after the election polls close should votes be counted?

There seems to be a big(ish) story in the UK about the fact that some voting districts are thinking of holding off counts until the following morning to save money, there is even a Facebook group asking for people to join if they want to keep the “results as soon as possible” system.

What do you think, please let me know below

Rival Coalitions Virtually Even in Norway

The governing Labour Party (DNA) is still the most popular in Norway but may face a challenge in trying to maintain its current coalition, according to a poll by TNS Gallup released by TV2. 31.9 per cent of respondents would vote for Labour in this month’s election, down 2.8 points since July.

The rightist Progress Party (FrP) is second with 23.8 per cent, followed by the Conservatives (H) with 14 per cent, the Socialist Left (SV) with 7.1 per cent, the Christian People (KrF) with seven per cent, the Liberal Left (V) with six per cent, and the Agrarians (Sp) also with six per cent. Continue reading

Japan prepares for political upheaval after Sunday’s general election

In A land of volcanoes and earthquakes the seismic shift is all too common. But for decades Japan’s political landscape has not reflected the country’s geological uncertainty. A general election on Sunday August 30th should change all that. Opinion polls suggest that when voters go to the polls for the powerful lower house of the Diet (parliament), the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), will trounce the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), thus ending over 50 years of nearly continuous rule.

The magnitude of the defeat facing Taro Aso, the prime minister and LDP leader, is startling. A poll in Thursday’s Asahi Shimbun suggests that the LDP’s representation in the Diet could be more than halved to about 100 seats. The DPJ could take as many as 320 of the chamber’s 480 seats. Continue reading

How Accurate Is Pre-Election Polling in Afghanistan?

Afghanistan is gearing up for elections this Thursday. Recent polls suggest that Hamid Karzai will garner the most votes but fall short of a majority, necessitating a runoff election. How accurate are polls in Afghanistan?

They’re better than they were before the country’s 2004 election but not nearly as good as Western polls. During the last presidential election, when Hamid Karzai won with 55 percent of the vote. One prominent poll had predicted that Karzai would win 78 percent of the vote. Exit polls from the same organization, the International Republican Institute, a nonpartisan group established by Congress to support fledgling democracies, came much closer, missing the margin of victory by fewer than nine points. The failures of 2004 have led Afghan pollsters to improve their sampling techniques, and most analysts expect better results this time around. Continue reading