Why the Welsh are not likely to be voting in Parliamentary referendum before 2011.

THE latest opinion poll on the greater powers for the Assembly is good news for those backing a Yes vote. The margin in favour is getting wider – so why does a referendum on the issue in 2011 feel increasingly unlikely to happen?

A referendum before that date is a key part of the Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition deal in the Assembly. It’s unlikely Plaid would have signed on the dotted line without such a pledge; the fact that Labour are in government in Westminster and thus able to grant such a poll was also a major factor in persuading Plaid’s high command in 2007 that a deal with Labour was preferable to one with the Conservatives.

But the caveats in the deal very quickly started to look like roadblocks. The referendum could only go ahead, the agreements states, after a vote in the Assembly and in Westminster.

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